The EUR/USD pair saw a slight uptick in the Asian session on Tuesday, trading around the 1.0575-1.05780 region, up by just over 0.15% for the day. This mild positive bias was driven by a softer tone surrounding the US Dollar (USD), attributed to retreating US bond yields and a positive risk tone in the markets. The USD Index (DXY) touched a one-and-a-half-week low as subdued wage growth and speculation about a softer Federal Reserve (Fed) stance weighed on the greenback.
The recent military clashes between Israel and Hamas, though initially causing a brief market stir, resulted in a positive turnaround in equity markets. This shift has eroded the USD's relative safe-haven status, further supporting the EUR/USD pair. However, the uptick remains cautious as there are speculations that the European Central Bank (ECB) may postpone additional rate hikes. From a technical perspective, EUR/USD has been in a short-term bearish trend since July, suggesting a wait-and-see approach for traders.
EUR/USD's recent decline over the past three months has formed a downward-sloping channel, indicating a short-term bearish trend. To confirm a near-term bottom, traders are advised to wait for strong follow-through buying, particularly around the 1.0450-1.0445 area, which corresponds to the year-to-date trough. Additionally, market participants are holding off on trading decisions ahead of key releases, including the FOMC meeting minutes and US consumer inflation figures later in the week.
In the coming days, traders will closely monitor scheduled speeches by ECB President Christine Lagarde and influential FOMC members. These speeches, along with US bond yields and broader risk sentiment, are expected to shape the demand for the USD and present short-term trading opportunities in the EUR/USD pair. In the absence of significant economic data, market sentiment remains a crucial driver.
In the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair's movement is currently influenced by a combination of factors, including USD weakness, geopolitical developments, and technical trends. Forex traders are keenly observing the pair's performance and considering its recent bearish trend. As key economic releases and speeches by central bank officials approach, Forex traders may remain cautious and wait for more concrete signals before making significant trading decisions. The USD's safe-haven status and the ECB's monetary policy decisions are factors that will continue to influence the Forex market's dynamics in the near term.