Gold prices are showing resilience in the face of a weakening US Dollar (USD). XAU/USD is making gains, trading around $1,921 during the Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal benefits from a declining dollar, but its upward momentum is being tempered by the positive performance of US Treasury yields, currently standing at 4.30%.
Strong economic releases in August had previously exerted downward pressure on Gold prices, despite some recent setbacks in the labor market. Market participants are closely monitoring the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August, as it holds considerable significance before the September monetary policy meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). This data will provide insights into the country's inflation scenario, impacting the investors’ outlook on the USD.
In the past week, Federal Reserve policymakers expressed support for maintaining the current policy stance on September 20 due to declining inflation and a loosening labor market. However, the appeal of Gold prices may be tempered as the US Dollar (USD) is anticipated to remain strong, potentially absorbing the effects of higher interest rates more effectively. Investors have been pricing in the probability of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate hike by the Fed, expected in either the November or December meetings. This hawkish tone could restrict Gold's upward potential.
For Forex traders eyeing XAU/USD, it's crucial to consider technical levels. Currently, the daily simple moving averages (SMA) show that the 20-day SMA is at 1916.74, the 50-day SMA stands at 1932.22, the 100-day SMA at 1949.99, and the 200-day SMA at 1919.5. Previous daily highs and lows offer important levels of 1930.77 and 1916.64, respectively. Weekly and monthly highs and lows are also relevant indicators. Daily Fibonacci levels at 38.2% and 61.8% sit at 1925.37 and 1922.04, respectively, adding to the technical picture for traders.
The interplay between Gold (XAU) and the US Dollar (USD) is of paramount importance to Forex traders. As Gold seeks to extend gains amidst USD weakness, Forex traders must closely monitor factors like the upcoming CPI release, the Fed's monetary policy decisions, and the strength of the USD. The potential interest rate hike and its timing can significantly impact the Forex market. Traders should consider these dynamics when making decisions, as Gold's appeal and the USD's strength are likely to continue influencing Forex movements in the coming weeks.