The UK session is starting with the release of retail sales figures, which, if they show a jump, could force the Bank of England (BoE) to take a more aggressive monetary policy stance. However, economists are forecasting a decline in retail sales by 0.5% for March, leading to a bearish outlook for the GBP/USD.
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Alongside the retail sales figures, flash private sector PMI numbers for April will be in focus. Forex traders should pay attention to the sub-components, including input and output prices, new orders, and employment, which could move the dial.
The services PMI is a crucial indicator for the GBPUSD exchange rate and is forecasted to hold steady at 52.9. Forex traders should also monitor BoE commentary, even though no MPC members are scheduled to speak on the calendar today, leaving them to monitor chatter with the media.
Forex traders should pay attention to the technical indicators, which show resistance and support levels for the GBP/USD. The pound needs to avoid the $1.2438 pivot to target the first major resistance level. Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs send bullish signals, with a hold above the 50-day EMA supporting a breakout from R1 to give the bulls a run at R2 and $1.2550.
The US session will be influenced by flash private sector PMI numbers for April and FOMC member commentary. Weak PMIs could signal a recession, and forex traders should pay attention to the sub-components, including new orders, employment, and prices.